ESTIMATING PREDICTIVE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS
Shaun Comfort, Principal Scientific Enablement Director for Roche-Genentech, shows a simple implementation for estimating the probability of success for Bernoulli outcomes such as clinical trials, contract bids, and medical devices in this article.
This approach can be a useful method for individuals external to development teams responsible for capturing, tracking, calibrating, and presenting forecasts for decision makers, such as portfolio leaders or decisional analysis professionals. Take a look!
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